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Why is TV dying?
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2007
Apr 04
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Comments
5
“The IT Crowd” is a show from the isle of TV greatness, The United Kingdom. Based in a nameless, faceless company full of “beautiful people doing nothing and having affairs” we follow the problems and trials of two basement dwelling IT employees. Think of them as the two standard stereotypes of nerds. Slobby, junk food eating, lazy but smart nerd and lives at home and is dressed by his mother nerd. Toss in their “boss” who bluffs her way though her interview and we have a wonderful little show that every computer nerd will relate to. Go watch it.
Now here is the problem, the show is one season old. Six episodes. It’s a large hit in Briton and is making is way though the blog realm. You Tube has all the episodes and when you search for them they show up first, which wasn’t true last month. So, of course the big American TV companies are making their version. With beautiful people. They always use beautiful people. One could ask why don’t they just show the original over here. Well here is the problem. Americans are stupid. Or at least that is what the large TV companies think and bank on. We couldn’t possibly understand jokes that make reference to a culture that we know nothing about. We need homogenized TV. We have to watch what they choose and like it. They should be watching the problems the record industry is going though. Are we facing a future of being sued for not watching crap American TV?
Now here is the other side. If all content becomes user created (You Tube) will we have good shows? While watching some kid flail about with a large pole is entertaining for 30 seconds people will move on. Now granted 30 million people might watch it but how do you make a profit from that? Pop Ups? Also, at some point it’s going to be relegated to the recycle bin of life.
So where is TV headed? A combination of both? Interactive? Smell-O-Vision? Something we haven’t created yet? Or we could just go outside and play with an Aerobe.
-Lorkin-
What we are going to see is the impact of RSS.
RSS is a technology that is destined to completely ruin the business models of broadcast TV and even cable TV networks.
I predict that within 10 years, and probably not even that long, broadcast TV will be a dead technology. All of the money spent to upgrade equipment to broadcast HD signals will be wasted money that never sees a return on the investment.
RSS (Really Simple Syndication) enables anybody to easily publish their content to an audience (make that “a worldwide audience”). Viewers simply tell their computer, or more importantly their set to box, to subscribe to various RSS feeds. As new episodes are posted to the feed, they are downloaded without any sort of user intervention. Think of an RSS as a channel as we know it now.
People who use DVR technology are already used to (and absolutely love) the technology that lets them easly watch programming that is stored on their set top box. They rave about being freed from the broadcast TV schedule. The DVR was the first phase. The second phase is the killer.
The new Apple TV is the first (I believe) set top box to offer built in “podcast” support from the factory. Don’t be fooled. “Podcast” is a misleading name. It doesn’t have anything to do with an iPod. It really means “RSS” support. I will guarantee that Microsoft will be adding RSS support to the Xbox 360 in the near future. Tivo will also not be far behind.
The beauty of publishing via RSS is that it suddenly makes it feasable to produce content for an audience of only 100,000 viewers (or less). Instead of Broadcasting, think of it as Narrowcasting. People will subscribe to the programming that interests them.
Why would advertizers want to buy ad space for only 100,000 viewers? For the same reason that they buy ad space in magazines with only 100,000 readers. They can pinpoint their ads to the people who they want to target in order to maximize the return on their advertizing investment. Without the huge overhead costs currently associated with producing network TV, this type of ad model will work, and work well. Most likely, the advertizing will be woven into the programming, instead of taking comercial breaks that we are used to fast forwarding through.
The great part is that there will be independent programming in HD! There are already “video podcasts” published in HD, and there will be more. Besides the crappy “user generated” feeds that will be similar to the content on YouTube, we will also see semi-professional and professional content being produced.
I predict that we will come to find out that viewers are willing to overlook technical production problems in favor of better more interesting content.
For coverage of live events, technologies like Joost will offer live TV over IP networks (read “the Internet”). I’m predicting that the change will happen quickly, as local broadcasters begin to fail and cease operation. The cable companies will simply become broadband providers. The video content will come from all over.
This is where we’re going.
-M
The problem with RSS and “narrowbanding” viewers, you cannot make as much profit on a small audience. Granted cost will be down on the production side, but to what benefit. Low grade productions will be cheaper but you will have to wade in a sea for bad hand held camera “shows” of some frat guys making a TV show about drinking beer. Although your point about content over production quality is valid they regularly go hand in hand.
(Keep in mind production quality isn’t just about shinier, point in case, Yoda is better as a Muppet). Better to save costs on the Actors.
Also look at the fact that the largest internet provider is the largest entertainment provider as well. They are already trying to put the idea of open content available and creatable by all in the dumpster. Net Neutrality is a highly important issue, but most people don’t comprehend what it means for the future of information (or content). The big companies will try and kill any idea of RSS based distribution. Then we will all get letters suing us for using RSS.
RSS is great but I question if it will truly happen.
It’s already happening, and as set top boxes that can use it are more accessable to non-geeks, we’re going to see the trend accelerate. It is going to happen very quickly.
There will be bad, very amataeur content, but it’s not going to be like TV now, where you flip past it on the channels simply because it’s being pushed out to you. You won’t really have to “wade through it”. What I’m talking about isn’t real time, so streaming bandwidth isn’t quite as critical either. You box can be downloading the content while you’re sleeping, at work, or watching something else.
Net neutrality is a big deal, yes… but if you’re watching closely, you’re seeing something that many people said would never happen. Music is being sold online with NO DRM through iTunes. By a major label for that matter. Nothing is impossible. Net neutrality will work itself out.
The times are changing.
Social networking concepts are going to play a major roll too. There will be websites with directories of RSS feeds, and we will be able to tag content that we like or dislike. As we tag more items, and others tag more items, the system can begin to create suggestions to content that we might like based on those tags.
Imagine being able to tell the system to create a group of users who’s viewing preferences matched yours by a specific threshold, say a 70% match. Then, tell the system to show you feeds that 80% of those people liked.
All of a sudden, you’ve got a way to cut out the crap, and find content that will most likely interest you because it interested many other people with similar tastes.
The ad supported model will work. Narrowcasting will work. It is what the advertizers want. They want to target their ads at a specific audience so that they can focus their money where it will create the most return.
It doesn’t have to cost a fortune to produce good programming. And a small production company can produce good content for a fraction of the cost of CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX, etc… They don’t have to sell the ads for as much money, and the ads can be more focused.
Just keep watching as this all unfolds.
G+
Lorkin, do you have BBC? I’m jealous if you do. I won’t get technical but I think the problem with TV is that there aren’t enough choices. We have over 100 stations but so many of them are just junk.
Yes we do have BBC. It is by far the most watched channel in our house. I wish they would show more shows from ‘cross the pond. One can only take so many episodes of “Cash in the Attic”. But Life on Mars, the new Robin Hood, Viva Blackpool, My Family, Hardware (which Big G would apreciate), Coupling, and Monarch of the Glen are just a few of the excellent shows they have shown.